What Every Educational Publisher Should Know About the Paper Market Right Now

If you've noticed longer lead times, tighter allocations, or price adjustments from your print partner recently, you're not imagining things. The North American paper market is experiencing a period of significant disruption, and the ripple effects are being felt across every grade used in educational book manufacturing.

Here's what's happening, and what it means for your print planning.

The NORPAC Situation: A Double Disruption

Two major events at North Pacific Paper Company (NORPAC) in Longview, Washington, are creating uncertainty in the book paper supply chain.

First, International Paper announced an agreement to acquire NORPAC for $360 million. NORPAC operates three paper machines, one of which produces the uncoated freesheet (UFS), cutsize, and book paper grades commonly used in educational publishing. The acquisition signals IP's intent to expand its corrugated packaging capacity on the West Coast, meaning the future of that book paper machine is an open question.

Second, and more immediately: a catastrophic incident at the neighboring Nippon Dynawave facility on May 26, 2026. A 900,000-gallon tank ruptured, releasing tens of thousands of gallons of white liquor, the caustic chemical used to break wood chips into pulp. The accident tragically resulted in 11 confirmed fatalities.

Nippon supplies both steam energy and bleached pulp directly to NORPAC's operation, making NORPAC's near-term production capacity uncertain. Supply disruptions and delays from this facility should be anticipated.

For publishers sourcing book paper in the United States, these supply disruptions could affect availability and contingency plans should be reviewed.

Uncoated Groundwood: Tight Allocations and a Key Mill Down

The MF (machine finish) groundwood grades used in lower-cost textbooks are under increasing pressure.

A $2.50/cwt price increase was announced for June 2026, driven by strong Q2 order books across mills including Domtar, White Birch, Kruger, Billerud, Twin Rivers, and Port Hawkesbury. Supply relationships are more important than ever and long-term customers will be more likely to get through the current supply disruptions as compared to spot buyers who aren’t providing proper visibility to potential suppliers.

Adding to the pressure: Domtar, the largest uncoated groundwood book paper producer in North America, currently has its Dolbeau mill down due to an equipment issue. Domtar has the ability to move production of these grades within its other manufacturing sites, but this will reduce the overall supply to the market until the repair is made and the mill is back up and running. If you use lower-brightness groundwood grades, pre-booking and forecasting are essential right now.

The NORPAC/IP acquisition compounds this further. IP's core business is corrugated packaging, and with two of NORPAC's three large machines already running brown papers, the long-term availability of MF book grades from that facility remains a concern.

Uncoated Freesheet: Price Increases Across the Board

Virtually every UFS producer in North America announced price increases for Q2 2026. Most domestic mills implemented increases in the 4–9% range, with effective dates between April and mid-June. Overseas suppliers followed suit, with increases ranging from 6–8%.

A few highlights from the pricing landscape:

• American Eagle: 8% effective April 1, with a second increase announced for July 1
• Billerud: 8% effective May 18
• Boise/PCA: $50/MT effective June 1
• Domtar/Resolute: 4–6% effective June 15
• Finch Paper*: 5–9% effective May 7

Operating rates returned to 91% in April, healthy by historical standards, but shipments were down 2% for the month and 6% year-to-date, as overall capacity has contracted. UFS imports (both rolls and sheets) were each down 10% through April.

Backlogs are stretching out, particularly on heavier-weight opaques. One Canadian mill is reporting lead times of four to five months.

Coated & Matte Freesheet: Sappi on Allocation, ND Paper Downtime

The coated freesheet market is seeing similar dynamics. Price increases of $3.00–$3.50/cwt (roughly 6%) have been implemented by both domestic and foreign CFS mills, effective in the May–June window.

Sappi remains on CFS allocation at both Cloquet, MN and Skowhegan, ME facilities. The allocation process is being evaluated on a month-to-month basis pending order intake. ND Paper has scheduled maintenance downtime for its CFS machine in Rumford, ME from June 6–10.

US CFS mills were operating at 90% in March, up from a notably low January (81%), as some machine conversions over the past year have reduced available tonnage in the market.

What This Means for Your Print Schedule

For educational publishers, the key takeaways from this market environment are straightforward:

• Lock in your paper early. Mills are prioritizing loyal, forecasted customers. Non-forecasted and spot orders are being delayed or declined. If you have a known print schedule for fall adoptions or back-to-school runs, your printer needs to know now.
• Understand your supply chain exposure. Ask your print partner where your paper comes from and whether they have secondary sources. B&B works with five roll stock suppliers across a range of grades, including Clifford Paper, Lindenmeyr Munroe, OVOL, Midland, and Finch, which provides flexibility when any one source is constrained.
• Factor cost increases into your planning. Across all materials, year-over-year increases are significant: paper (averaged across suppliers) is up approximately 9.6%, transportation is up around 11%, plates are up nearly 32%, and even pallet costs have risen nearly 70% since 2025. Publishers who release titles early and lock in pricing ahead of these waves are insulated from mid-cycle cost adjustments.
• Don't assume availability will improve quickly. Between the NORPAC disruption, multiple mill closures in the newsprint segment, ongoing machine conversions, and strong demand from long-term contract customers, the paper market is running lean. The capacity reductions of recent years are structural, not cyclical.

B&B's Position

Bradford & Bigelow has very long-term relationships with paper mills primarily in the Northeastern United States/Canada and has ample storage capacity at our Newburyport, Newton, and nearby warehousing facilities. Forecasting is key. We work proactively with our paper partners to forecast and protect allocations for our customers' print schedules.

If you have upcoming titles and want to understand how current market conditions might affect your timeline or pricing, we're happy to walk through it with you.